CDHE Season-ahead Predictions

We aim to develop a framework that combines Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) with complexity science to identify the potential drivers and improve the predictability of Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHE).

Is it possible to predict?

How to identify a relevant predictor?

Illustration of the 12 climate indices, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Niño 3.4, Niño 1.2, Trans Niño Index (TNI), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Tropical (NAT), Southern Atlantic Tropical (SAT), Tropical Atlantic Index (TAI), Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), Western Tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO), Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO), and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The white boxes represent the predictors, which are 3-month averaged SST values of the climate Index, while the magenta box represents the CDHE, the predictand. The horizontal dotted line represents the tropic of cancer. Table S1 provides the spatial coverage of each climate index. Readers can refer to Chen et al., (2016) for further in-depth insights regarding climate indices.

Methods 

Prediction

For more details:

Guntu, R. K., and Agarwal, A.: Improving the predictability of compound dry and hot extremes through complexity science. Environ. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c0c, 2023